Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024

Azerbaijan national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 17, 2023 at 5pm UK
Dalga Arena
Estonia national football team

Azerbaijan
1 - 1
Estonia

Krivotsyuk (62')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sappinen (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Azerbaijan and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Azerbaijan

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Sweden 5-0 Azerbaijan
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Estonia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Austria 2-1 Estonia
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
AzerbaijanDrawEstonia
41.81% (0.617 0.62)27.75% (-0.205 -0.21)30.44% (-0.411 -0.41)
Both teams to score 47.42% (0.427 0.43)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.8% (0.615 0.62)58.2% (-0.614 -0.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.15% (0.479 0.48)78.85% (-0.477 -0.48)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.56% (0.631 0.63)27.44% (-0.629 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.07% (0.806 0.81)62.93% (-0.80399999999999 -0.8)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.35% (0.021000000000001 0.02)34.65% (-0.020999999999994 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.63% (0.021999999999998 0.02)71.37% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Azerbaijan 41.81%
    Estonia 30.43%
    Draw 27.74%
AzerbaijanDrawEstonia
1-0 @ 12.29% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 8.43% (0.106 0.11)
2-0 @ 7.95% (0.096 0.1)
3-1 @ 3.63% (0.109 0.11)
3-0 @ 3.43% (0.1 0.1)
3-2 @ 1.93% (0.059 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.17% (0.055 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.11% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 41.81%
1-1 @ 13.03% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 9.51% (-0.224 -0.22)
2-2 @ 4.47% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 27.74%
0-1 @ 10.07% (-0.23 -0.23)
1-2 @ 6.91% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.34% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-3 @ 2.44% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.89% (-0.041 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.58% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 30.43%

How you voted: Azerbaijan vs Estonia

Azerbaijan
41.1%
Draw
21.4%
Estonia
37.5%
56