Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Austria
4 - 1
Azerbaijan

Sabitzer (27', 50'), Gregoritsch (29'), Baumgartner (69')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Mahmudov (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Austria and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austria

All competitions

Last Game: Austria 2-0 Italy
Sunday, November 20 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	6	2	13
2	Denmark	6	4	12
3	France	6	-2	5
4	Austria	6	-4	4

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Last Game: N. Macedonia 1-3 Azerbaijan
Sunday, November 20 at 1pm in International Friendlies

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Kazakhstan	0	0	0
2	Belarus	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 50.08%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 0-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.

Result
Austria	Draw	Azerbaijan
50.08% ( -0)	24.95% ( -0.01)	24.96% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 51.95% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.46% (

0.06)

50.53% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.54% (

0.05)

72.45% (

-0.06)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.81% (

0.02)

20.18% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.51% (

0.03)

52.48% (

-0.04)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.09% (

0.05)

34.91% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.35% (

0.05)

71.65% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Austria 50.08%

Azerbaijan 24.96%

Draw 24.94%

Austria	Draw	Azerbaijan
1-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.81% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 50.08%	1-1 @ 11.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.94%	0-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.9% 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 2.09% Total : 24.96%