UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia
0 - 1
Slovakia

Tamm (38'), Robert Shein (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Suslov (70')
Obert (28'), Bozenik (55'), Vavro (87'), Dubravka (90+5'), Calzona (90+6'), Hancko (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Estonia and Slovakia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Estonia (3-4 pen.)
Tuesday, June 11 at 5pm in Baltic Cup

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

Slovakia

All competitions

Last Game: England 2-1 Slovakia
Sunday, June 30 at 5pm in European Championship

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Romania	3	1	4
2	Belgium	3	1	4
3	Slovakia	3	0	4
4	Ukraine	3	-2	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 46.73%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Slovakia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Slovakia.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Slovakia
27.72% ( -0.41)	25.54% ( -0.24)	46.73% ( 0.65)

Both teams to score 52.45% (

0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49% (

0.74)

50.99% (

-0.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.14% (

0.65)

72.86% (

-0.65)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.09% (

0.07)

32.91% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.51% (

0.08)

69.48% (

-0.09)

Slovakia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.18% (

0.6)

21.82% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.96% (

0.91)

55.03% (

-0.92)

Score Analysis

Estonia 27.72%

Slovakia 46.73%

Draw 25.53%

Estonia	Draw	Slovakia
1-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.51% Total : 27.72%	1-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.53%	0-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 8.32% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.69% ( 0.13) 0-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.32% Total : 46.73%