Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 92.98%. A draw had a probability of 5.5% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 3-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (13.38%) and 2-0 (12.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.55%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.