Even if Calzona opts to give playing time to some of his fringe players, we still think that Slovakia will have far too much quality for their opponents to get their Euro 2024 preparations up and running with a routine victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 92.98%. A draw had a probability of 5.5% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 3-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (13.38%) and 2-0 (12.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.55%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.

Result
Slovakia	Draw	San Marino
92.98% ( 0.04)	5.54% ( -0.03)	1.47% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 28.42% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.17% (

0.06)

25.83% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54% (

0.08)

46% (

-0.08)

Slovakia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.04% (

0.01)

2.96% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

86.62% (

0.05)

13.38% (

-0.05)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

29.28% (

-0.07)

70.71% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

4.78% (

-0.02)

95.22% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Slovakia 92.97%

San Marino 1.47%

Draw 5.54%

Slovakia	Draw	San Marino
3-0 @ 15.21% 4-0 @ 13.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 12.96% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.64% ( -0) 2-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 3.27% ( 0) 7-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 1.92% ( 0) 8-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 7-1 @ 0.96% ( 0) 3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.62% Total : 92.97%	1-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 5.54%	Other @ 1.47% Total : 1.47%