Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 44.44%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 29.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.