Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 56.93%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Slovakia had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Slovakia win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.