Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.