Major League Soccer

Jul 14, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 1
Philadelphia

Elliott (74' og., 74' og.), Kerr (78', 78')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Baribo (39', 39')
Sullivan (77'), Sullivan (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Columbus Crew 4-0 Toronto
Sunday, July 7 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: Philadelphia 0-0 NY Red Bulls
Sunday, July 7 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 28.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Toronto in this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	Philadelphia Union
49.25% ( 0.18)	22.42% ( -0.04)	28.32% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 63.59% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.45% (

0.11)

36.55% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.3% (

0.12)

58.69% (

-0.13)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.8% (

0.1)

15.19% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.18% (

0.19)

43.81% (

-0.2)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.98% (

-0.03)

25.02% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.31% (

-0.05)

59.68% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Toronto 49.25%

Philadelphia Union 28.33%

Draw 22.42%

Toronto	Draw	Philadelphia Union
2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.08% Total : 49.25%	1-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.48% 0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( 0) Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.42%	1-2 @ 6.87% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 28.33%