Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 69.61%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 12.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.