The Philadelphia Union need a win against Toronto on Sunday at Subaru Park to officially clinch first place in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer.
Heading into Decision Day, the Union are two points ahead of CF Montreal for first but have won fewer games, while the Reds have dropped four straight contests, which is one shy of their season high.
Match preview
© Reuters
A season filled with convincing performances and numerous lopsided victories has been anything but that of late in Philadelphia.
Jim Curtin's men kicked off this month by falling 4-0 to Charlotte FC, their biggest regular season defeat since 2019.
Philly have failed to find the back of the net in two straight MLS fixtures after scoring a total of 23 goals in their previous five outings.
If they can collect another shutout on Sunday, the Union would end the regular season with the second-best goal differential in MLS history, while a victory by seven or more goals would eclipse the old record set by Los Angeles FC of +48 in 2019.
When you look at some of their results this year, that possibility does not sound so far-fetched as Philly have won four times in 2022 by six or more goals.
Their 64 points collected this year is a new club record, while their 68 goals scored is the most ever for any Union squad in a single season, and if they allow fewer than nine goals on Sunday, it will set a new franchise mark for the fewest goals allowed in a 34-game campaign.
© Reuters
Bob Bradley has experienced numerous highs and lows in his first season in charge of Toronto, and since September, there have not been many positives for him to take away.
TFC are one defeat shy of their longest losing streak of the year, and should they fail to score on Sunday, it would be the third straight game in which the Reds have been shut out, equalling their longest run of the campaign.
Scoring goals at Subaru Park has proven to be increasingly tricky for Toronto recently, as the Reds have been outscored by a total of 8-0 in their previous two visits there.
If they can concede fewer than four times on Sunday, it would improve their defensive numbers from a year ago when they allowed 66 goals.
Since blanking Charlotte 2-0 in late August, Toronto have lost back-to-back road fixtures, conceding eight goals while scoring only two.
The Reds have failed to score the opening goal in four of their previous five league matches and have not won a game in which they had conceded first since beating the Union 2-1 in April.
Team News
© Reuters
In their previous encounter, Daniel Gazdag became the 33rd Union player to make 50 regular season starts, and he is third in league scoring (19 goals) behind Sebastian Driussi (21) and Hany Mukhtar (23).
Kai Wagner is tied for second in the league for assists with 15, three fewer than Luciano Acosta, while Andre Blake heads into the final regular season match tied with Sean Johnson for the most clean sheets in MLS (14).
Wagner will be suspended for this match after receiving two cautions in Charlotte, and Alejandro Bedoya is questionable because of a hip flexor strain.
After scoring in four consecutive outings, Federico Bernardeschi has not found the back of the net in two straight contests for Toronto, while his Italian countryman Lorenzo Insigne has started the last two matches after missing his three previous games due to personal reasons.
Quentin Westberg has started the last three games in goal for the Reds in place of Alex Bono, while Deandre Kerr, Chris Mavinga and Jesus Jimenez were all inserted into the starting 11 against Miami.
Jonathan Osorio is out because of an upper-body injury, while Doneil Henry will not play as he is dealing with a problem in his lower body.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Real, Elliott, Glesnes, Harriel; Flach, Martinez, Sullivan; Gazdag; Uhre, Carranza
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Westberg; Laryea, O'Neill, Mavinga, Criscito; Nelson, Bradley, Kaye; Bernardeschi, Akinola, Insigne
We say: Philadelphia Union 3-1 Toronto
It is no secret that the Reds have been poor defensively throughout the campaign, and that has been especially evident away from home, where they have conceded multiple goals on 11 occasions this year.
The Union are not as bad on the back end as their previous match might indicate, and we anticipate them to be a lot stingier on Sunday, while Curtin has numerous scoring options who are capable of finding the back of the net at any moment.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
