Major League Soccer

Jun 20, 2024 at 12.45am UK

Dr. DY Patil Stadium

Cincinnati
4 - 3
Philadelphia

Kelsy (29', 29'), Acosta (49' pen., 49' pen., 90+10', 90+10'), Orellano (60', 60')
Keller (6'), Keller (6')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Baribo (43', 43', 90+1', 90+1'), Bueno (55', 55')
Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), McGlynn (81'), McGlynn (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: Earthquakes 2-4 Cincinnati
Sunday, June 16 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 Inter Miami
Sunday, June 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 52.55%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
FC Cincinnati	Draw	Philadelphia Union
52.55% ( 0.85)	23.57% ( -0.16)	23.87% ( -0.69)

Both teams to score 55.17% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.28% (

0.05)

45.72% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.96% (

0.05)

68.04% (

-0.04)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.63% (

0.34)

17.37% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.22% (

0.58)

47.78% (

-0.58)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.77% (

-0.55)

33.23% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.16% (

-0.62)

69.84% (

0.62)

Score Analysis

FC Cincinnati 52.55%

Philadelphia Union 23.87%

Draw 23.57%

FC Cincinnati	Draw	Philadelphia Union
1-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.78% Total : 52.55%	1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.57%	0-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.37% Total : 23.87%