Major League Soccer
Toronto
May 26, 2024 12.30am
3
4
HT : 2 0
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Miles Robinson 83' yellowcard
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • yellowcard Miles Robinson 83'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'

Toronto vs FC Cincinnati - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
May 19, 2024 12.30am
Toronto 5 - 1 Montreal
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Federico Bernardeschi

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
May 19, 2024 12.30am
Cincinnati 3 - 1 St Louis City
Goals scored
58
Top scorer
Luciano Acosta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result

Toronto 45.54% ▲ (+0.87)
Draw 23.89% ▼ (-0.20)
FC Cincinnati 30.57% ▼ (-0.67)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.82% ▲ (+0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5 57.84% ▲ (+0.58)
Under 2.5 42.16% ▼ (-0.58)
Over 3.5 35.43% ▲ (+0.58)
Under 3.5 64.56% ▼ (-0.58)
Over 4.5 18.59% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 4.5 81.41% ▼ (-0.43)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5 81.26% ▲ (+0.60)
Under 0.5 18.74% ▼ (-0.59)
Over 1.5 49.88% ▲ (+0.99)
Under 1.5 50.12% ▼ (-0.98)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5 73.62% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 0.5 26.38% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 38.46% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 1.5 61.53% ▲ (+0.19)

Score analysis

Toronto 45.54%
Draw 23.89%
FC Cincinnati 30.57%
Toronto
2-1 @ 9.24% ▲ (+0.08)
1-0 @ 8.28% ▼ (-0.06)
2-0 @ 6.93% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.14)
3-0 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.12)
3-2 @ 3.44% ▲ (+0.08)
4-1 @ 2.16% ▲ (+0.10)
4-0 @ 1.62% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 1.44% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 45.54%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.03% ▼ (-0.13)
2-2 @ 6.15% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 4.94% ▼ (-0.13)
3-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.89%
FC Cincinnati
1-2 @ 7.35% ▼ (-0.12)
0-1 @ 6.59% ▼ (-0.20)
0-2 @ 4.39% ▼ (-0.15)
1-3 @ 3.27% ▼ (-0.07)
2-3 @ 2.73% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.08)
1-4 @ 1.09% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 30.57%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Nippert Stadium
Toronto
  • Yuya Kubo 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jonathan Osorio 2'
  • yellowcard Raoul Petretta 34'
  • yellowcard Shane O'Neill 54'
  • yellowcard Sean Johnson 82'
Major League Soccer
Toronto
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
2
3
HT : 4 4
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 84' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 86' yellowcard
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Nippert Stadium
Toronto
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal
Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
May 5, 2022 12.30am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Toronto
  • Calvin Harris 2' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 57' goal
  • Obinna Nwobodo 59' yellowcard
  • Tyler Blackett 75' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Barreal 88' yellowcard
  • redcard Ralph Priso-Mbongue 6'
  • yellowcard Jayden Nelson 12'
Major League Soccer
Toronto
Apr 30, 2022 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Cincinnati
  • Jesus Jimenez 65' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 86' yellowcard
  • goal Ian Murphy 44'
  • yellowcard Alvas Powell 50'
  • goal Luciano Acosta 52'
Major League Soccer Gameweek 36
Toronto
Sep 30, 2021 12.00am
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Cincinnati
  • Jacob Shaffelburg 48' goal
  • Jacob Shaffelburg 48' goal
  • Marco Delgado 55' goal
  • Marco Delgado 55' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 59' yellowcard
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 60' yellowcard
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 65' goal
  • Ifunanyachi Achara 65' goal
  • Yeferson Soteldo 76' yellowcard
  • Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Florian Valot 32'
  • goal Ronald Matarrita 38'
  • yellowcard Edgar Castillo 41'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Vallecilla 59'
  • goal Luciano Acosta 72'
  • yellowcard Caleb Stanko 74'
  • yellowcard 88'

Form Data

Toronto 5 - 1 Montreal
Nashville 2 - 0 Toronto
Toronto 2 - 3 NY City
Toronto 3 - 1 Dallas
Orlando City 1 - 2 Toronto
Toronto 1 - 0 New England
Cincinnati 3 - 1 St Louis City
Cincinnati 1 - 0 Atlanta
Columbus Crew 1 - 2 Cincinnati
Orlando City 0 - 1 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 2 - 1 Colorado
Atlanta 1 - 2 Cincinnati