Friendlies 1

Mar 26, 2024 at 9pm UK

Stade de Marrakech

Mali
2 - 0
Nigeria

Bilal Toure (18'), Doumbia (87')
Samassa (53')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Collins (90+1'), Collins (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's friendly clash between Mali and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mali 2-0 Mauritania
Friday, March 22 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Nigeria

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Nigeria 2-1 Ghana
Friday, March 22 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 23.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Nigeria
50.08% ( 0.06)	25.95% ( -0.18)	23.97% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 48.04% (

0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.82% (

0.76)

55.18% (

-0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.58% (

0.62)

76.42% (

-0.62)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.92% (

0.35)

22.08% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.56% (

0.52)

55.43% (

-0.52)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.65% (

0.54)

38.35% (

-0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.89% (

0.51)

75.1% (

-0.51)

Score Analysis

Mali 50.08%

Nigeria 23.98%

Draw 25.94%

Mali	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 12.79% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.01% Total : 50.08%	1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 3.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.56% Total : 23.98%