Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 50.75%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Mantova win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.

Result
Genoa	Draw	Mantova
50.75% ( 0.07)	24.17% ( -0.03)	25.08% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 54.53% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.82% (

0.08)

47.18% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.59% (

0.08)

69.41% (

-0.08)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.39% (

0.06)

18.61% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.09% (

0.1)

49.91% (

-0.1)

Mantova Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67% (

0.01)

33% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.42% (

0.01)

69.58% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Genoa 50.74%

Mantova 25.08%

Draw 24.16%

Genoa	Draw	Mantova
1-0 @ 10.32% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.3% Total : 50.74%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.16%	0-1 @ 6.81% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 2.44% Total : 25.08%