AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
FC Volendam
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam logo
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie | Gameweek 25
Mar 10, 2024 at 11.15am UK
AFAS Stadion
Excelsior

AZ
4 - 0
Excelsior

de Wit (13'), Pavlidis (15'), Mijnans (25', 72')
FT(HT: 3-0)

de Moes (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: Sparta 1-1 AZ
Saturday, March 2 at 8pm in Eredivisie

SBV Excelsior

All competitions
Last Game: Sittard 5-2 Excelsior
Sunday, March 3 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
75.37% (0.783 0.78)14.92% (-0.109 -0.11)9.71% (-0.671 -0.67)
Both teams to score 52.98% (-2.475 -2.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.42% (-1.717 -1.72)32.57% (1.719 1.72)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.77% (-2.016 -2.02)54.23% (2.018 2.02)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.77% (-0.23399999999999 -0.23)7.23% (0.2369 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.78% (-0.623 -0.62)26.22% (0.626 0.63)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.11% (-2.516 -2.52)42.89% (2.519 2.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.8% (-2.205 -2.21)79.19% (2.208 2.21)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 75.36%
    SBV Excelsior 9.71%
    Draw 14.92%
AZ AlkmaarDrawSBV Excelsior
2-0 @ 10.69% (0.702 0.7)
3-0 @ 9.37% (0.511 0.51)
2-1 @ 9.06% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 8.14% (0.635 0.64)
3-1 @ 7.93% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-0 @ 6.15% (0.262 0.26)
4-1 @ 5.21% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.288 -0.29)
5-0 @ 3.23% (0.099 0.1)
5-1 @ 2.74% (-0.106 -0.11)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.219 -0.22)
6-0 @ 1.42% (0.026 0.03)
6-1 @ 1.2% (-0.063 -0.06)
5-2 @ 1.16% (-0.131 -0.13)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 75.36%
1-1 @ 6.9% (0.082999999999999 0.08)
2-2 @ 3.83% (-0.276 -0.28)
0-0 @ 3.1% (0.277 0.28)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.155 -0.16)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 14.92%
1-2 @ 2.92% (-0.171 -0.17)
0-1 @ 2.63% (0.064 0.06)
0-2 @ 1.11% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.08% (-0.161 -0.16)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 9.71%

How you voted: AZ vs Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar
94.1%
Draw
5.9%
SBV Excelsior
0.0%
17
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 5.45pm
Gameweek 11
Excelsior
1-1
AZ
Sandra (90+1')
Lamprou (7'), Baas (71')
Lahdo (72')
de Wit (25'), Bazoer (68'), Moller Wolfe (88')
> Preview
Feb 10, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 21
AZ
5-0
Excelsior
Mijnans (20', 30'), Karlsson (27'), Odgaard (35'), Pavlidis (38')
> Preview
Oct 23, 2022 11.15am
Gameweek 11
Excelsior
2-1
AZ
Horemans (6'), Azarkan (31')
Sugawara (48')
> Preview
May 15, 2019 6.30pm
Gameweek 33
Excelsior
4-2
AZ
Fortes (21'), Van Rhijn (51' og.), Bruins (60' pen.), Omarsson (66')
Mattheij (41')
Koopmeiners (30'), Johnsen (70')
Gudmundsson (59')
Dec 15, 2018 6.45pm
Gameweek 16
AZ
2-1
Excelsior
Til (39'), Johnsen (94')
Ouwejan (57')
Mahmudov (30')
Fortes (75')
rhs 2.0


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!