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EFL Cup | Third Round
Nov 8, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Crawley Town

Burnley
3 - 1
Crawley

Barnes (24'), Zaroury (79', 90')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Telford (22')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Burnley and Crawley Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Sheff Utd 5-2 Burnley
Saturday, November 5 at 12.30pm in Championship

Crawley Town

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Crawley 1-4 Accrington
Saturday, November 5 at 3pm in FA Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 69.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 12.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.47%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawCrawley Town
69.84% (0.049999999999997 0.05)17.91% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)12.25% (-0.025 -0.03)
Both teams to score 50.9% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.19% (0.063000000000002 0.06)39.82% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.83% (0.067 0.07)62.17% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.74% (0.027000000000001 0.03)10.26% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.37% (0.067000000000007 0.07)33.63% (-0.07 -0.07)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.72%43.28% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.47% (0.0010000000000012 0)79.53% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 69.83%
    Crawley Town 12.25%
    Draw 17.91%
BurnleyDrawCrawley Town
2-0 @ 11.51%
1-0 @ 10.11% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 8.74% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.32% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
4-0 @ 4.97% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.16% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.06% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 2.26% (0.008 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.9% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.74% (0.004 0)
Other @ 4.42%
Total : 69.83%
1-1 @ 8.47% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.44% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.04% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 17.91%
0-1 @ 3.72% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.55% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.56% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.13%
1-3 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.31%
Total : 12.25%

How you voted: Burnley vs Crawley

Burnley
82.0%
Draw
4.0%
Crawley Town
14.0%
100