Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.