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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 66.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Rotherham United had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.25%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Rotherham United win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
66.96% ( 4.37) | 20.41% ( -1.59) | 12.63% ( -2.78) |
Both teams to score 43.88% ( -2.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.18% ( 0.87) | 49.82% ( -0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.18% ( 0.77) | 71.82% ( -0.77) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.02% ( 1.67) | 13.98% ( -1.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.52% ( 3.19) | 41.48% ( -3.19) |
Rotherham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.01% ( -3.65) | 48.99% ( 3.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.05% ( -2.75) | 83.95% ( 2.75) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
1-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.32) 2-0 @ 13.25% ( 1.05) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 8.7% ( 1.15) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.78) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.28) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.39) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.18) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 66.95% | 1-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.79) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.44) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.41% | 0-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.73) 1-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.69) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.48) Other @ 2.57% Total : 12.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
P | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 45 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 88 | 56 | 32 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 45 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 84 |
5 | Norwich CityNorwich | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 79 | 63 | 16 | 73 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 67 | 47 | 20 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 59 | 9 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 66 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 45 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 62 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 59 | 64 | -5 | 57 |
14 | Watford | 45 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 56 |
15 | Sunderland | 45 | 16 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Millwall | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 56 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 53 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 53 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 50 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 45 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 50 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 45 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 48 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 47 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 45 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 75 | -27 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 45 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 87 | -55 | 24 |
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