DFB-Pokal | First Round

Aug 12, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Schott Mainz
1 - 6
Dortmund

Gans (34')
Ahlbach (44'), Roden (68'), Muller (87')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Haller (22', 35'), Brandt (24'), Sabitzer (57'), Malen (79'), Moukoko (85')
Can (8')

Coverage of the DFB-Pokal First Round clash between Schott Mainz and Borussia Dortmund.

Form, Standings, Stats

Schott Mainz

Last Game: Schott Mainz 0-3 Hannover
Sunday, July 31 at 2.31pm in DFB-Pokal

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 Ajax
Sunday, August 6 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 93.67%. A draw had a probability of 4.5% and a win for Schott Mainz had a probability of 1.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 0-4 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.84%) and 0-5 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2%), while for a Schott Mainz win it was 2-1 (0.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Schott Mainz	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
1.8% ( -0.02)	4.52% ( -0.02)	93.67% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 45.28% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

86.44% (

-0.02)

13.56% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

71.7% (

-0.03)

28.3% (

0.02)

Schott Mainz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.93% (

-0.17)

54.07% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.68% (

-0.1)

87.31% (

0.1)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

98.59%

1.41% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

92.57% (

0.01)

7.43% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Schott Mainz 1.8%

Borussia Dortmund 93.66%

Draw 4.52%

Schott Mainz	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
Other @ 1.8% Total : 1.8%	1-1 @ 2% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.21% Total : 4.52%	0-4 @ 10.47% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 9.84% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 8.93% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.93% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 6.44% ( -0.01) 0-6 @ 6.34% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.05% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 5.49% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.01) 1-6 @ 3.9% ( -0) 0-7 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.01) 1-7 @ 2.37% ( -0) 0-8 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-8 @ 1.26% ( -0) 2-6 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) 0-9 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.52% Total : 93.66%