Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 1st Leg
Mar 5, 2025 at 10pm UK
Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin

Melgar
0 - 1
Cerro Porteno


Caceda (31')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Piris (34' pen.)
Fernandez Torres (73'), Benitez (86')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Melgar and Cerro Porteno.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

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Last Game: Melgar 1-0 Tolima
Friday, February 28 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Cerro Porteno

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Cerro Porteno 3-1 Monagas
Thursday, February 27 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 55.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 20.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Cerro Porteno win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
MelgarDrawCerro Porteno
55.05% (-0.28 -0.28)24.42% (0.021000000000001 0.02)20.53% (0.258 0.26)
Both teams to score 48.23% (0.312 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.22% (0.217 0.22)52.77% (-0.219 -0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.6% (0.187 0.19)74.4% (-0.188 -0.19)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.92% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)19.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.31% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)50.68% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Cerro Porteno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.6% (0.404 0.4)40.39% (-0.405 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.99% (0.362 0.36)77.01% (-0.364 -0.36)
Score Analysis
    Melgar 55.04%
    Cerro Porteno 20.53%
    Draw 24.42%
MelgarDrawCerro Porteno
1-0 @ 12.76% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-0 @ 10.57% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.59% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.84% (-0.065 -0.06)
3-1 @ 5.29% (0.00099999999999945 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.026 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 55.04%
1-1 @ 11.57% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.71% (-0.066999999999999 -0.07)
2-2 @ 4.35% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.42%
0-1 @ 6.99% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.25% (0.065 0.07)
0-2 @ 3.17% (0.042 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.59% (0.037 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.31% (0.03 0.03)
0-3 @ 0.96% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 20.53%

How you voted: Melgar vs Cerro Porteno

Melgar
100%
Draw
0.0%
Cerro Porteno
0.0%
6