Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg
Mar 12, 2025 at 10pm UK
Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Cerro Porteno
4 - 2
Melgar

Araujo (12'), Carrizo (56'), da Costa (70'), Adrian Farina Romero (79')
Gimenez (42'), Dominguez (60'), Velazquez (66')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Martinez (45+6' pen.), Liza (89')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Cerro Porteno and Melgar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro Porteno

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Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Wednesday, March 5 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
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Melgar

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Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Cerro Porteno
Wednesday, March 5 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 39.42%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.

Result
Cerro PortenoDrawMelgar
39.42% (0.418 0.42)27.78% (0.079000000000001 0.08)32.8% (-0.496 -0.5)
Both teams to score 48.08% (-0.344 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.27% (-0.38 -0.38)57.73% (0.379 0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.53% (-0.301 -0.3)78.47% (0.301 0.3)
Cerro Porteno Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.45% (0.057999999999993 0.06)28.55% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.66% (0.073 0.07)64.34% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.3% (-0.53699999999999 -0.54)32.7% (0.536 0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.75% (-0.601 -0.6)69.25% (0.59999999999999 0.6)
Score Analysis
    Cerro Porteno 39.41%
    Melgar 32.8%
    Draw 27.78%
Cerro PortenoDrawMelgar
1-0 @ 11.7% (0.19 0.19)
2-1 @ 8.2% (0.025 0.03)
2-0 @ 7.34% (0.129 0.13)
3-1 @ 3.43% (0.016 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.07% (0.059 0.06)
3-2 @ 1.91% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.07% (0.006 0.01)
4-0 @ 0.96% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 1.74%
Total : 39.41%
1-1 @ 13.08% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 9.34% (0.134 0.13)
2-2 @ 4.58% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 27.78%
0-1 @ 10.43%
1-2 @ 7.31% (-0.097 -0.1)
0-2 @ 5.83% (-0.087 -0.09)
1-3 @ 2.72% (-0.077 -0.08)
0-3 @ 2.17% (-0.065 -0.07)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.045 -0.04)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 32.8%

How you voted: Cerro Porteno vs Melgar

Cerro Porteno
100%
Draw
0.0%
Melgar
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Mar 5, 2025 10pm
Third Round 1st Leg
Melgar
0-1
Cerro Porteno

Caceda (31')
Piris (34' pen.)
Fernandez Torres (73'), Benitez (86')