Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 28, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Olimpia
4 - 1
Melgar

Silva (2' pen., 2' pen.), Paiva (9', 9', 23', 23'), Cardozo (31', 31')
FT(HT: 8-0)
Martinez (54', 54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Olimpia and Melgar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Olimpia

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Last Game: Olimpia 3-0 Atletico Nacional
Friday, June 9 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Melgar

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Last Game: Melgar 5-0 Patronato
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 23.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.

Result
OlimpiaDrawMelgar
50.06% (-0.434 -0.43)26.25% (0.177 0.18)23.69% (0.258 0.26)
Both teams to score 46.92% (-0.221 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.5% (-0.427 -0.43)56.5% (0.427 0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.5% (-0.346 -0.35)77.49% (0.345 0.34)
Olimpia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.36% (-0.372 -0.37)22.64% (0.371 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.72% (-0.556 -0.56)56.27% (0.555 0.56)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.65% (0.0039999999999978 0)39.35% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)76.05% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Olimpia 50.05%
    Melgar 23.69%
    Draw 26.24%
OlimpiaDrawMelgar
1-0 @ 13.23% (0.07 0.07)
2-0 @ 9.83% (-0.057 -0.06)
2-1 @ 9.17% (-0.051 -0.05)
3-0 @ 4.87% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-1 @ 4.54% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
3-2 @ 2.12% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.81% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 50.05%
1-1 @ 12.34% (0.07 0.07)
0-0 @ 8.91% (0.146 0.15)
2-2 @ 4.28% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 8.31% (0.136 0.14)
1-2 @ 5.76% (0.032 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.88% (0.064 0.06)
1-3 @ 1.79% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.21% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 1.43%
Total : 23.69%

How you voted: Olimpia vs Melgar

Olimpia
100%
Draw
0.0%
Melgar
0.0%
5
Head to Head
Apr 7, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Melgar
1-1
Olimpia