Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Jun 7, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin

Melgar
5 - 0
Patronato

Cuesta (8' pen., 8' pen., 41', 41'), Bordacahar (13', 13'), Martinez (22' pen., 22' pen.), Adrian DÂ´Arrigo Huanca (58'), D'Arrigo (58')

FT(HT: 8-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Melgar and Patronato, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Patronato

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Patronato 0-2 Olimpia
Thursday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Patronato
54.77% ( 0.36)	25.27% ( -0.16)	19.96% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 45.09% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.48% (

0.34)

56.53% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.49% (

0.27)

77.52% (

-0.27)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.35% (

0.28)

20.66% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.77% (

0.44)

53.23% (

-0.44)

Patronato Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.82% (

-0.02)

43.18% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.56% (

-0.02)

79.44% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Melgar 54.76%

Patronato 19.96%

Draw 25.27%

Melgar	Draw	Patronato
1-0 @ 14.06% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.76%	1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.63% Total : 25.27%	0-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 19.96%