Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 2nd Leg

Feb 28, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin

Melgar
1 - 0
Tolima

Bordacahar (86' pen., 86' pen.)
Barrios (33'), Barrios (33'), Castro (45'), Castro (45'), Gonzalez (59'), Gonzalez (59'), Martinez (64'), Martinez (64'), Bordacahar (82'), Bordacahar (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pablo Nieto (50'), Pablo Nieto (50'), Torres (60'), Torres (60'), Rovira (82'), Rovira (82'), Castro (87'), Castro (87'), Ramirez (89'), Ramirez (89')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Melgar and Deportes Tolima.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

Last Game: Tolima 0-1 Melgar
Friday, February 21 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Deportes Tolima

Last Game: Tolima 0-1 Melgar
Friday, February 21 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 60.52%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 15.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.27%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Melgar in this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Deportes Tolima
60.52% ( -0.33)	24.33% ( 0.31)	15.15% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 39.46% (

-0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.58% (

-0.97)

59.42% (

0.97)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.21% (

-0.76)

79.79% (

0.75)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.46% (

-0.5)

19.54% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.56% (

-0.82)

51.44% (

0.82)

Deportes Tolima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.04% (

-0.55)

50.95% (

0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.69% (

-0.37)

85.31% (

0.37)

Score Analysis

Melgar 60.51%

Deportes Tolima 15.15%

Draw 24.33%

Melgar	Draw	Deportes Tolima
1-0 @ 16.25% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 13.27% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.41% Total : 60.51%	1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.4% Total : 24.33%	0-1 @ 6.71% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 15.15%