Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg
Feb 21, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Tolima
0 - 1
Melgar


Quinones (45'), Quinones (45'), Ramirez (87'), Ramirez (87')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Cabrera (36', 36')
Tandazo (49'), Tandazo (49'), Cabrera (70'), Cabrera (70'), Caceda (86'), Caceda (86')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Deportes Tolima and Melgar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

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Last Game: Tolima 0-0 Medellin (2-4 pen.)
Wednesday, March 6 at 2am in Copa Sudamericana
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Melgar

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Last Game: Melgar 1-1 Aurora
Thursday, February 15 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 46.69%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 25.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.87%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.

Result
Deportes TolimaDrawMelgar
46.69% (-0.401 -0.4)28.09% (0.115 0.12)25.22% (0.289 0.29)
Both teams to score 43.43% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.29% (-0.195 -0.2)61.7% (0.198 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.48% (-0.144 -0.14)81.52% (0.146 0.15)
Deportes Tolima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.46% (-0.292 -0.29)26.54% (0.294 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.25% (-0.389 -0.39)61.74% (0.392 0.39)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.12% (0.152 0.15)40.87% (-0.15000000000001 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.56% (0.137 0.14)77.44% (-0.13499999999999 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Deportes Tolima 46.69%
    Melgar 25.22%
    Draw 28.07%
Deportes TolimaDrawMelgar
1-0 @ 14.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.54% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.22% (-0.075 -0.08)
3-1 @ 3.78% (-0.051 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.69% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.4% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 46.69%
1-1 @ 12.87% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 10.84% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 3.82% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 28.07%
0-1 @ 9.71% (0.111 0.11)
1-2 @ 5.76% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.34% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 1.72% (0.019 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.3% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.14% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 25.22%