Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals

Dec 14, 2025 at 9pm UK

Corinthians
1-2
Cruzeiro

Bidu (55')

FT
(aet)

Alexander Arroyo Alvarado (40', 50')

Corinthians win 5-4 on penalties

Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Semi-Finals clash between Corinthians and Cruzeiro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

Last Game: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro (5-4 pen.)
Sunday, December 14 at 9pm in Copa do Brasil

Cruzeiro

Last Game: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro (5-4 pen.)
Sunday, December 14 at 9pm in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (9.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
Corinthians	Draw	Cruzeiro
39.89%	26.69%	33.41%

Both teams to score 51.54%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.58%

53.41%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.05%

74.94%

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.75%

26.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.64%

61.36%

Cruzeiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.89%

30.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.75%

66.25%

Score Analysis

Corinthians 39.89%

Cruzeiro 33.41%

Draw 26.68%

Corinthians	Draw	Cruzeiro
1-0 @ 10.57% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 7.07% 3-1 @ 3.78% 3-0 @ 3.15% 3-2 @ 2.27% 4-1 @ 1.27% 4-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.24% Total : 39.89%	1-1 @ 12.68% 0-0 @ 7.9% 2-2 @ 5.09% 3-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.68%	0-1 @ 9.49% 1-2 @ 7.62% 0-2 @ 5.69% 1-3 @ 3.05% 0-3 @ 2.28% 2-3 @ 2.04% 1-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.34% Total : 33.41%

Head to Head

Dec 11, 2025 12.30am

Semi-Finals

Cruzeiro

0-1

Corinthians

Pereira (74'), Pereira (75'), Bruno (77'), Romero (84')

Depay (22')
Depay (45+1'), Romero (45+6'), Depay (46'), Romero (46'), Henrique (52'), Souza (78'), Maycon (86'), (86'), Luiz Santos Dias (90+3'), Ramalho (90+3')

Nov 23, 2025 11.30pm

Jul 23, 2025 11.30pm

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Nov 20, 2024 2pm

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Corinthians