Bahia
Brasileiro | Gameweek 11
May 31, 2025 at 10.30pm UK
Arena Fonte Nova
Sao Paulo

Bahia
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

Jose (53', 73' pen.)
Kayky (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Luciano (85' pen.)
Luciano (59'), Rodriguinho (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Bahia and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Brasileiro
Last Game: Internacional 2-1 Bahia
Wednesday, May 28 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-1 Talleres
Tuesday, May 27 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 48.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
BahiaDrawSao Paulo
48.59% (0.023000000000003 0.02)26.42% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)24.99% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 47.66% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.84% (0.021999999999998 0.02)56.15% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.78% (0.018000000000001 0.02)77.22% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Bahia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.84% (0.019000000000005 0.02)23.15% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.97% (0.029000000000003 0.03)57.03% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)37.97% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)74.74%
Score Analysis
    Bahia 48.59%
    Sao Paulo 24.99%
    Draw 26.41%
BahiaDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 12.86%
2-0 @ 9.41% (0.0040000000000013 0)
2-1 @ 9.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.59% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-1 @ 4.44% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 1.68% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 1.63% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 48.59%
1-1 @ 12.45%
0-0 @ 8.79% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.41% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 26.41%
0-1 @ 8.51% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.03% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 4.12% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-3 @ 1.95%
2-3 @ 1.42% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 24.99%

How you voted: Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Bahia
83.3%
Draw
8.3%
Sao Paulo
8.3%
12
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Rossi (77')
de Lucca (69')

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