Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 2nd Leg

May 21, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho

Nautico
1 - 2
Sao Paulo

Cunha Borges (83', 83')
Silva Raphaelli (21'), Silva Raphaelli (21'), Adalberto De Oliveira Junior (90+1'), Adalberto De Oliveira Junior (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Luciano (4', 4'), Rodriguinho (75', 75')
Diaz (53'), Diaz (53'), Rodriguinho (76'), Rodriguinho (76')
Ferraresi (22'), Ferraresi (22')

Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Nautico and Sao Paulo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nautico

Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-1 Nautico
Wednesday, April 30 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil

Sao Paulo

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio
Sunday, May 18 at 1am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 36%. A win for Nautico had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 30.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.08%) and 1-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Nautico win was 1-0 (12.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Nautico	Draw	Sao Paulo
33.55% ( -0.01)	30.46%	36% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 40.9% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.46% (

-0.01)

66.54% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.05% (

-0)

84.95% (

0.01)

Nautico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.11% (

-0.01)

36.89% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.32% (

-0.01)

73.67% (

0.01)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.81%

35.19% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.06% (

71.94%

Score Analysis

Nautico 33.54%

Sao Paulo 35.99%

Draw 30.46%

Nautico	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 12.94% 2-1 @ 6.74% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.24% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.15% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 1.85% Total : 33.54%	1-1 @ 13.52% 0-0 @ 12.98% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 30.46%	0-1 @ 13.55% 0-2 @ 7.08% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.06% 0-3 @ 2.47% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.46% 2-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.15% Total : 35.99%