Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 37.51%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.