Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Boavista |
| 28.85% | 28.8% | 42.34% |
| Both teams to score 43.85% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.66% | 62.33% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.01% | 81.98% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.88% | 38.12% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.12% | 74.88% |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.86% | 29.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.93% | 65.06% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 10.71% 2-1 @ 6.37% 2-0 @ 5.17% 3-1 @ 2.05% 3-0 @ 1.66% 3-2 @ 1.26% Other @ 1.63% Total : 28.85% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 11.1% 2-2 @ 3.93% Other @ 0.56% Total : 28.79% | 0-1 @ 13.69% 0-2 @ 8.45% 1-2 @ 8.15% 0-3 @ 3.47% 1-3 @ 3.35% 2-3 @ 1.62% 0-4 @ 1.07% 1-4 @ 1.03% Other @ 1.52% Total : 42.33% |