Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 42.66%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Nacional |
42.66% | 29.14% | 28.2% |
Both teams to score 42.67% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
36.36% | 63.64% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.07% | 82.93% |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.4% | 29.6% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.36% | 65.64% |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.61% | 39.39% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.91% | 76.09% |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Nacional |
1-0 @ 14.19% 2-0 @ 8.64% 2-1 @ 8.05% 3-0 @ 3.51% 3-1 @ 3.27% 3-2 @ 1.52% 4-0 @ 1.07% 4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.43% Total : 42.66% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 11.66% 2-2 @ 3.75% Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.14% | 0-1 @ 10.86% 1-2 @ 6.16% 0-2 @ 5.06% 1-3 @ 1.91% 0-3 @ 1.57% 2-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 1.46% Total : 28.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 75 | 25 | 50 | 65 |
2 | Benfica | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 21 | 39 | 64 |
3 | Porto | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 18 | 32 | 58 |
4 | Braga | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 34 | 21 | 53 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 50 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 42 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 34 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 28 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 28 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 28 |
11 | Casa Pia | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 27 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 27 |
13 | Estrela Amadora | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 26 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 25 |
15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 23 |
17 | Vizela | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 21 |
18 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 56 | -31 | 19 |
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