Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 42.84%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 27.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (7.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 42.84% | 29.44% | 27.72% |
| Both teams to score 41.69% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.27% | 64.73% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.3% | 83.7% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.95% | 30.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.82% | 66.17% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.59% | 40.4% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.98% | 77.02% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 14.59% 2-0 @ 8.78% 2-1 @ 7.95% 3-0 @ 3.52% 3-1 @ 3.19% 3-2 @ 1.45% 4-0 @ 1.06% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.34% Total : 42.83% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 12.13% 2-2 @ 3.6% Other @ 0.47% Total : 29.42% | 0-1 @ 11% 1-2 @ 6% 0-2 @ 4.99% 1-3 @ 1.81% 0-3 @ 1.51% 2-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.34% Total : 27.72% |