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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 56.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
56.66% ( 1.01) | 22.39% ( -0.17) | 20.95% ( -0.84) |
Both teams to score 55.19% ( -0.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.17% ( -0.31) | 43.83% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.78% ( -0.31) | 66.21% ( 0.3) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.73% ( 0.23) | 15.27% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.04% ( 0.43) | 43.96% ( -0.43) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.14% ( -0.98) | 34.86% ( 0.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.4% ( -1.05) | 71.59% ( 1.04) |
Score Analysis |
Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 10% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.27) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.63% Total : 56.66% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.38% | 0-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.01% Total : 20.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
> League Two Full Table |