Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.85%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest Notts County win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.