FA Cup

FA Cup | Fifth Round

Mar 2, 2022 at 7.15pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
2 - 3
Chelsea

Burke (2'), Cornick (40')
Muskwe (67')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Niguez (27'), Werner (68'), Lukaku (78')

Reaction

Chelsea head coach Thomas Tuchel during the FA Cup tie against Luton Town on March 2, 2022.

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Mar 2, 21:49

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 63.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.57%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.28%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Chelsea
14.68%	21.8%	63.52%

Both teams to score 45.04%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.77%

51.23%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.94%

73.06%

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.31%

46.69%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.75%

82.25%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.48%

15.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.56%

44.43%

Score Analysis

Luton Town 14.68%

Chelsea 63.51%

Draw 21.8%

Luton Town	Draw	Chelsea
1-0 @ 5.52% 2-1 @ 3.92% 2-0 @ 2.1% 3-1 @ 0.99% 3-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.22% Total : 14.68%	1-1 @ 10.28% 0-0 @ 7.25% 2-2 @ 3.65% Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.8%	0-1 @ 13.5% 0-2 @ 12.57% 1-2 @ 9.58% 0-3 @ 7.81% 1-3 @ 5.95% 0-4 @ 3.64% 1-4 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.27% 0-5 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.06% 1-5 @ 1.03% Other @ 1.99% Total : 63.51%