EFL Trophy | Group Stage

Sep 20, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
1 - 2
Forest Green

Evans (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Stevenson (69'), Fiabema (79')

Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Newport County and Forest Green Rovers.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

Last Six:

Last Game: Newport 0-2 Barrow
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in League Two

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
18	Harrogate Town	9	-5	8
19	Newport County	9	-4	7
20	Crawley Town	9	-5	6

Forest Green Rovers

Last Six:

Last Game: Forest Green 1-2 Morecambe
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in League One

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
21	Bristol Rovers	9	-6	8
22	Forest Green Rovers	9	-10	8
23	Morecambe	9	-10	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 36.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Forest Green Rovers
36.56% ( 0.08)	25.32% ( -0.01)	38.12% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 56.59% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.85% (

0.06)

47.15% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.61% (

0.05)

69.38% (

-0.05)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8% (

0.07)

25.2% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.07% (

0.1)

59.93% (

-0.1)

Forest Green Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.66% (

-0.01)

24.34% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.26% (

-0.02)

58.74% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Newport County 36.56%

Forest Green Rovers 38.12%

Draw 25.32%

Newport County	Draw	Forest Green Rovers
1-0 @ 8.46% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.56%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.98% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 38.12%