Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Jul 5, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio 15 de Abril

Union
1 - 2
Nacional

Britez (70')
Roldan (21')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ramirez (78'), Luis Rodriguez (84')
Coelho (12'), Candido (16'), Fagundez (57'), Zabala (60'), Lozano (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Union and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union

Last Six:
Last Game: Union 3-0 Lanus
Sunday, July 3 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division

Nacional

Last Six:
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Union
Tuesday, June 28 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
UnionDrawNacional
43.86% (0.041999999999994 0.04)23.56% (0.016999999999999 0.02)32.58% (-0.058 -0.06)
Both teams to score 62% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.29% (-0.1 -0.1)39.71% (0.1 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.93% (-0.104 -0.1)62.06% (0.103 0.1)
Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.55% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)18.45% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.37% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)49.63% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.03% (-0.082000000000008 -0.08)23.97% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.79% (-0.117 -0.12)58.21% (0.117 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Union 43.86%
    Nacional 32.58%
    Draw 23.55%
UnionDrawNacional
2-1 @ 9.02% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.47% (0.03 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.32% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.08% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-2 @ 3.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.56% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.15% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-2 @ 1.53% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 1.5% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 43.86%
1-1 @ 10.67% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.44% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.42% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.73% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.55%
1-2 @ 7.62% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-1 @ 6.32% (0.015 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.51% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 3.63% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.07% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.3% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.1% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 32.58%

How you voted: Union vs Nacional

Union
45.5%
Draw
45.5%
Nacional
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Jun 28, 2022 11.15pm
Nacional
2-0
Union
Fagundez (4'), Lozano (21')
Rodriguez (47'), Coelho (86'), Trasante (90')

Polenta (84')