Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Aug 10, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Municipal Ruminahui

Independiente
4 - 1
Tachira

(Independiente del Valle win 5-1 on aggregate)

Chavez (32'), Sornoza (45+5' pen.), Diaz (64'), Faravelli (81' pen.)

FT(HT: 2-1)

Hernandez (26')
Gutierrez (24'), Mello (45+4'), Camacho (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Independiente del Valle and Deportivo Tachira, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

Last Game: Tachira 0-1 Independiente
Wednesday, August 3 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Deportivo Tachira

Last Game: Tachira 0-1 Independiente
Wednesday, August 3 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 20.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Deportivo Tachira win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
53.16% ( 0.25)	25.95% ( -0.17)	20.88% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 44.51% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.05% (

0.51)

57.95% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.35% (

0.4)

78.65% (

-0.4)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.1% (

0.32)

21.9% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.84% (

0.48)

55.16% (

-0.48)

Deportivo Tachira Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57% (

0.21)

43% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.71% (

0.18)

79.29% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 53.15%

Deportivo Tachira 20.88%

Draw 25.95%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Deportivo Tachira
1-0 @ 14.3% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.89% Total : 53.15%	1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.6% Total : 25.95%	0-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.02% Total : 20.88%