Independiente del Valle
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jun 30, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal Ruminahui

Independiente
2 - 1
Lanus

Schunke (45+2'), Ayovi (90+3')
Bauman (11')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Belmonte (60')
Perez (25'), Almiron (69'), Pasquini (75'), Perez (87'), Monetti (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Independiente del Valle and Lanus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente del Valle

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Last Game: Independiente 3-0 America Mineiro
Thursday, May 26 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Lanus

Last Six:
Last Game: River Plate 2-1 Lanus
Sunday, June 26 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 51.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 21.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Independiente del Valle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Independiente del Valle.

Result
Independiente del ValleDrawLanus
51.32% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)27.65% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)21.03% (0.056999999999999 0.06)
Both teams to score 40.51% (0.126 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.72% (0.128 0.13)63.28% (-0.13 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.33% (0.091000000000001 0.09)82.67% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.97% (0.042999999999992 0.04)25.03% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.3% (0.061 0.06)59.7% (-0.061 -0.06)
Lanus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.03% (0.137 0.14)45.97% (-0.138 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.3% (0.108 0.11)81.7% (-0.108 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Independiente del Valle 51.31%
    Lanus 21.03%
    Draw 27.64%
Independiente del ValleDrawLanus
1-0 @ 15.93% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-0 @ 11.03% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.58% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.1% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 3.96% (0.012 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.76%
3-2 @ 1.54% (0.01 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 51.31%
1-1 @ 12.38%
0-0 @ 11.5% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-2 @ 3.33% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 27.64%
0-1 @ 8.94% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.81% (0.021 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.01 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.25% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 21.03%

How you voted: Independiente vs Lanus

Independiente del Valle
69.6%
Draw
17.4%
Lanus
13.0%
23