National League South | Gameweek 40
Mar 16, 2024 at 3pm UK
Melbourne Cricket Ground

Chelmsford City
3 - 1
Bath City

Castiglione (43'), Francis (52'), Hockey (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Wilson (46')
Coverage of the National League South clash between Chelmsford City and Bath City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chelmsford City

All competitions
Last Game: Maidstone 2-0 Chelmsford City
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in National League South

Bath City

All competitions
Last Game: Bath City 2-0 Hemel Hemps.
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelmsford City win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Bath City had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelmsford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Bath City win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelmsford City would win this match.

Result
Chelmsford CityDrawBath City
49.9% (-0.236 -0.24)25.4% (0.096 0.1)24.7% (0.141 0.14)
Both teams to score 50.35% (-0.141 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.48% (-0.255 -0.26)52.51% (0.254 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.82% (-0.218 -0.22)74.18% (0.218 0.22)
Chelmsford City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.93% (-0.203 -0.2)21.06% (0.204 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.13% (-0.317 -0.32)53.87% (0.318 0.32)
Bath City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.78% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)36.21% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)73% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Chelmsford City 49.9%
    Bath City 24.7%
    Draw 25.39%
Chelmsford CityDrawBath City
1-0 @ 11.88% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.4% (-0.026000000000002 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.25% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.88% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.81% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.48% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.9% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.87% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 49.9%
1-1 @ 12.06% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.63% (0.077 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.77% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 25.39%
0-1 @ 7.75% (0.075 0.08)
1-2 @ 6.13% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.93% (0.036 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.33% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 24.7%

Head to Head
Dec 2, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 22
Bath City
2-3
Chelmsford City
Cooke (8' pen., 42' pen.)
Greenslade (45' og.), Hockey (60', 62')
Barnum-Bobb (40')
Feb 4, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 31
Chelmsford City
0-2
Bath City
Wilson (7'), Smith (87')
Nov 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Bath City
0-1
Chelmsford City
Lodovica (67')
Jan 8, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 21
Chelmsford City
1-0
Bath City
Blackwell (26')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 3
Bath City
1-2
Chelmsford City
Cooke (90+5')
Morgan (45' pen.), Oluwadara Dada (48')
rhs 2.0


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