Major League Soccer

Jul 4, 2024 at 1.30am UK

CityPark

St Louis City
2 - 0
Earthquakes

Lowen (28', 28'), Kijima (41', 41')
Reid (56'), Reid (56'), Vassilev (61'), Vassilev (61')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Lopez (66'), Lopez (66'), Costa (72'), Costa (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between St Louis City and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

St Louis City

All competitions

Last Game: Vancouver 4-3 St Louis City
Sunday, June 30 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: Earthquakes 0-3 LA Galaxy
Sunday, June 30 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.

Result
St Louis City	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
46.66% ( -0.15)	23.02% ( -0.02)	30.31% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 62.8% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.82% (

0.19)

38.18% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.55% (

0.2)

60.45% (

-0.2)

St Louis City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.26% (

0.02)

16.74% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.34% (

0.03)

46.65% (

-0.03)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.42% (

0.2)

24.58% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.93% (

0.28)

59.07% (

-0.28)

Score Analysis

St Louis City 46.66%

San Jose Earthquakes 30.31%

Draw 23.01%

St Louis City	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 46.66%	1-1 @ 10.31% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.01%	1-2 @ 7.24% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 30.31%