Liga MX | 2nd Leg
May 11, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
2 - 1
Monterrey

Vega (30', 30'), Paulinho (68', 68')
Barbosa (12'), Barbosa (12'), Paulinho (45+1'), Paulinho (45+1'), Pereira (80'), Pereira (80')
FT(HT: 2-0)
de la Rosa (48', 48')
Chavez (19'), Chavez (19'), Medina (41'), Medina (41'), de la Rosa (48'), de la Rosa (48')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Monterrey.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Monterrey 3-2 Toluca
Thursday, May 8 at 2am in Liga MX

Monterrey

All competitions
Last Game: Monterrey 3-2 Toluca
Thursday, May 8 at 2am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Monterrey had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Monterrey win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Toluca in this match.

Result
TolucaDrawMonterrey
48.27% (-0.818 -0.82)23.76% (0.293 0.29)27.96% (0.519 0.52)
Both teams to score 58.5% (-0.605 -0.61)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.88% (-0.982 -0.98)43.12% (0.976 0.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.48% (-0.978 -0.98)65.52% (0.97200000000001 0.97)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.98% (-0.69200000000001 -0.69)18.02% (0.687 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.1% (-1.194 -1.19)48.89% (1.188 1.19)
Monterrey Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.36% (-0.137 -0.14)28.63% (0.13 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.56% (-0.167 -0.17)64.44% (0.16000000000001 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 48.27%
    Monterrey 27.96%
    Draw 23.75%
TolucaDrawMonterrey
2-1 @ 9.48% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-0 @ 8.84% (0.183 0.18)
2-0 @ 7.58% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.41% (-0.151 -0.15)
3-0 @ 4.33% (-0.104 -0.1)
3-2 @ 3.39% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-1 @ 2.32% (-0.119 -0.12)
4-0 @ 1.85% (-0.088 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.45% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 48.27%
1-1 @ 11.05% (0.19 0.19)
2-2 @ 5.93% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.16% (0.219 0.22)
3-3 @ 1.41% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 23.75%
1-2 @ 6.92% (0.094 0.09)
0-1 @ 6.45% (0.251 0.25)
0-2 @ 4.04% (0.144 0.14)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.47% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.68% (0.054 0.05)
1-4 @ 0.9% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 27.96%

Head to Head
May 8, 2025 2am
Monterrey
3-2
Toluca
Deossa (44'), Canales (50'), Berterame (69')
Deossa (56'), Jareth Fimbres Ochoa (82')
Guzman (17' og.), Garcia (82')
Ruiz (56'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3')
Jan 19, 2025 1am
Gameweek 2
Toluca
1-1
Monterrey
Helinho (11')
Barbosa (83')
Canales (47')
Moreno (66')
Sep 1, 2024 2am
Gameweek 6
Monterrey
1-2
Toluca
Vazquez (54' pen.)
Medina (90+8'), Berterame (90+11')
Gallardo (6'), Violante (87')
Ruiz (59'), Baeza (80'), Volpi (90+11')
Sep 1, 2024 2am
Gameweek 6
Monterrey
1-2
Toluca
Vazquez (54' pen.)
Medina (90+8'), Berterame (90+11')
Gallardo (6'), Violante (87')
Ruiz (59'), Baeza (80'), Volpi (90+11')
Feb 19, 2024 2.10am
Gameweek 7
Monterrey
0-0
Toluca
Garcia (71'), Baeza (80')