Liga MX Gameweek 13
Toluca
Mar 29, 2025 11.00pm
3
2
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Pachuca
  • Jesus Angulo 13' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 38' goal
  • Alexis Vega 45'+3' goal
  • Marcel Ruiz 54' yellowcard
  • Pau Lopez 55' yellowcard
  • Victor Arteaga 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luis Rodriguez 9'
  • goal Pau Lopez 62' (OG)
  • goal Pedro Pedraza 86'

Toluca vs Pachuca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2025 3.05am
Puebla 0 - 3 Toluca
Goals scored
89
Top scorer
Paulinho

Pachuca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 17, 2025 2.00am
Pachuca 4 - 1 Tijuana
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Salomon Rondon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 51.41%. A win for Pachuca had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Pachuca win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result

Toluca 51.41% ▼ (-0.13)
Draw 22.52% ▲ (+0.04)
Pachuca 26.06% ▲ (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.19% ▼ (-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5 61.16% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 2.5 38.84% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 3.5 38.85% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 3.5 61.15% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 4.5 21.22% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 4.5 78.77% ▲ (+0.10)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 84.72% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 0.5 15.27% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 1.5 56.02% ▼ (-0.16)
Under 1.5 43.98% ▲ (+0.15)

Pachuca Goals

Over 0.5 72.22% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 27.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 36.64% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 63.36%

Score analysis

Toluca 51.41%
Draw 22.51%
Pachuca 26.06%
Toluca
2-1 @ 9.59% ▼ (-0.01)
1-0 @ 7.97% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 7.49% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.01% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 4.69% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.85% ▼ (-0.02)
4-1 @ 2.82% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.81% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 51.41%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.21% ▲ (+0.04)
2-2 @ 6.15% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.24% ▲ (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.64% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.51%
Pachuca
1-2 @ 6.54% ▲ (+0.02)
0-1 @ 5.44% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.79% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.49% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 26.06%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 8
Pachuca
Sep 18, 2024 2.00am
2
2
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio Hidalgo
Toluca
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 41' yellowcard
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Sergio Adrian Hernandez Hernandez 57' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Owen Gonzalez 68' goal
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • Jorge Berlanga 81' redcard
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 37'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • goal Alexis Vega 45'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • yellowcard Victor Arteaga 55'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • goal Anderson Duarte 79'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard <TBD> 90'
  • yellowcard Alexis Vega 90'
  • yellowcard Isaias Violante 90'
  • yellowcard Frankie Amaya 90'+1'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Pachuca
Mar 31, 2024 3.00am
2
3
HT : 2 6
FT Estadio Hidalgo
Toluca
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Miguel Rodriguez 3' goal
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Sergio Barreto 31' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 32' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Salomon Rondon 36' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Carlos Sanchez 39' yellowcard
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Bryan Gonzalez 82' goal
  • Elias Montiel 83' yellowcard
  • Elias Montiel 84' yellowcard
  • Guillermo Almada 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Luis Rodriguez 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Brian Garcia 13'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • goal Tiago Volpi 34'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • yellowcard Juan Escobar 36'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • goal Alexis Vega 44'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
  • yellowcard Carlos Orrantia 75'
Liga MX Gameweek 7
Toluca
Sep 3, 2023 7.00pm
5
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
Pachuca
  • Tiago Volpi 26' goal
  • Maximiliano Araujo 29' goal
  • Juan Dominguez 53' goal
  • Pedro Raul 57' goal
  • Pedro Raul 63' goal
  • Jesus Venegas 68' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Miguel Rodriguez 18'
  • yellowcard Guillermo Almada 19'
  • yellowcard Carlos Moreno 24'
Liga MX Gameweek 8
Pachuca
Feb 20, 2023 3.05am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Hidalgo
Toluca
  • Javier Lopez 79' goal
  • goal Edgar Lopez 11'
  • goal Camilo Sanvezzo 90'+2'
Liga MX
Pachuca
Oct 31, 2022 1.36am
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
Toluca
  • Victor Alfonso Guzman Guzman 45'+3' goal
  • Nicolas Ibanez 51' goal
  • Gustavo Cabral 75' goal
  • goal Raul Lopez 21'
Liga MX
Toluca
Oct 28, 2022 2.06am
1
5
HT : 0 4
FT
Pachuca
  • Jordan Sierra 78' goal
  • goal Romario Ibarra 8'
  • goal Gustavo Cabral 13'
  • goal Romario Ibarra 36'
  • goal Mauricio Isais 41'
  • goal Nicolas Ibanez 53'

Form Data

Puebla 0 - 3 Toluca
Toluca 5 - 2 Necaxa
America 3 - 0 Toluca
Toluca 5 - 0 Queretaro
Juarez 0 - 4 Toluca
Toluca 2 - 1 Guadalajara
Pachuca 4 - 1 Tijuana
Pachuca 1 - 1 Mazatlan
Juarez 2 - 2 Pachuca
Pachuca 2 - 1 Puebla
Guadalajara 2 - 1 Pachuca
Pachuca 2 - 1 Pumas