Liga MX | Gameweek 13
Mar 29, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
3 - 2
Pachuca

Angulo (13', 38'), Vega (45+3')
Ruiz (54'), Lopez (55'), Arteaga (83')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Lopez (62' og.), Pedraza (86')
Rodriguez (9')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Pachuca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Puebla 0-3 Toluca
Saturday, March 15 at 3.05am in Liga MX

Pachuca

All competitions
Last Game: Pachuca 4-1 Tijuana
Monday, March 17 at 2am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 51.41%. A win for Pachuca had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Pachuca win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawPachuca
51.41% (-0.121 -0.12)22.52% (0.039999999999999 0.04)26.06% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
Both teams to score 61.19% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.16% (-0.117 -0.12)38.84% (0.112 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.85% (-0.121 -0.12)61.15% (0.117 0.12)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.72% (-0.082000000000008 -0.08)15.27% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.02% (-0.155 -0.16)43.98% (0.15 0.15)
Pachuca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)27.78% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.64% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)63.36%
Score Analysis
    Toluca 51.41%
    Pachuca 26.06%
    Draw 22.51%
TolucaDrawPachuca
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 7.97% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 6.01% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.69% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.85% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.82% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.2% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 51.41%
1-1 @ 10.21% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-0 @ 4.24% (0.022 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.64% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.51%
1-2 @ 6.54% (0.016 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.44% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.79% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 26.06%

Head to Head
Sep 18, 2024 2am
Gameweek 8
Pachuca
2-2
Toluca
Adrian Hernandez Hernandez (57'), Gonzalez (68')
Berlanga (41')
Berlanga (81')
Vega (45' pen.), Duarte (79')
Baeza (37'), Arteaga (55'), Vega (90'), Violante (90'), Amaya (90+1')
Mar 31, 2024 2am
Gameweek 13
Pachuca
2-3
Toluca
Rodriguez (3'), Gonzalez (82')
Barreto (31'), Rondon (36'), Sanchez (39'), Montiel (83'), Rodriguez (90+3'), Almada (90+2')
Garcia (13'), Volpi (34' pen.), Vega (44')
Escobar (36'), Orrantia (75')
Sep 3, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 7
Toluca
5-0
Pachuca
Volpi (26' pen.), Araujo (29'), Dominguez (53'), Raul (57', 63')
Venegas (68')

Rodriguez (18'), Almada (19'), Moreno (24')
Feb 20, 2023 3.05am
Gameweek 8
Pachuca
1-2
Toluca
Lopez (79')
Lopez (11'), Sanvezzo (90+2')
Oct 31, 2022 1.36am
Pachuca
3-1
Toluca
Alfonso Guzman Guzman (45+3'), Ibanez (51'), Cabral (75' pen.)
Lopez (21')