Liga MX | 1st Leg
May 8, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Monterrey
3 - 2
Toluca

Deossa (44', 44'), Canales (50', 50'), Berterame (69', 69')
Deossa (56'), Deossa (56'), Jareth Fimbres Ochoa (82'), Jareth Fimbres Ochoa (82')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Guzman (17' og., 17' og.), Garcia (82', 82')
Ruiz (56'), Ruiz (56'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Monterrey and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Monterrey

All competitions
Last Game: Monterrey 2-0 Pumas
Monday, May 5 at 2.30am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 2-2 Cruz Azul
Sunday, April 20 at 2.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monterrey would win this match.

Result
MonterreyDrawToluca
46.31%24.36%29.33%
Both teams to score 57.43%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.02%44.97%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.67%67.33%
Monterrey Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.45%19.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.55%51.45%
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.38%28.62%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.58%64.42%
Score Analysis
    Monterrey 46.31%
    Toluca 29.33%
    Draw 24.35%
MonterreyDrawToluca
2-1 @ 9.33%
1-0 @ 9.13%
2-0 @ 7.45%
3-1 @ 5.07%
3-0 @ 4.06%
3-2 @ 3.18%
4-1 @ 2.07%
4-0 @ 1.66%
4-2 @ 1.3%
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 46.31%
1-1 @ 11.42%
2-2 @ 5.83%
0-0 @ 5.59%
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.35%
1-2 @ 7.15%
0-1 @ 7%
0-2 @ 4.38%
1-3 @ 2.98%
2-3 @ 2.43%
0-3 @ 1.83%
1-4 @ 0.93%
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 29.33%

Head to Head
Jan 19, 2025 1am
Gameweek 2
Toluca
1-1
Monterrey
Helinho (11')
Barbosa (83')
Canales (47')
Moreno (66')
Sep 1, 2024 2am
Gameweek 6
Monterrey
1-2
Toluca
Vazquez (54' pen.)
Medina (90+8'), Berterame (90+11')
Gallardo (6'), Violante (87')
Ruiz (59'), Baeza (80'), Volpi (90+11')
Sep 1, 2024 2am
Gameweek 6
Monterrey
1-2
Toluca
Vazquez (54' pen.)
Medina (90+8'), Berterame (90+11')
Gallardo (6'), Violante (87')
Ruiz (59'), Baeza (80'), Volpi (90+11')
Feb 19, 2024 2.10am
Gameweek 7
Monterrey
0-0
Toluca
Garcia (71'), Baeza (80')
Aug 31, 2023 2am
Gameweek 5
Toluca
1-0
Monterrey
Dominguez (26')
Garcia (9')

Vegas (30'), Gallardo (90+6'), Meza (90+5')