Liga MX | Gameweek 14
Apr 7, 2025 at 1am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
2 - 1
Santos Laguna

Paulinho (39', 39', 84'), Ruiz (45+2', 45+2')
Gallardo (55'), Violante (90+2'), Violante (90+2')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Guemez (66', 66')
Echeverria (11'), Echeverria (11'), Carrillo (55'), Carrillo (55'), Guemez (89'), Guemez (89')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Santos Laguna.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Pachuca
Saturday, March 29 at 11pm in Liga MX

Santos Laguna

All competitions
Last Game: Santos Laguna 2-3 Atletico San Luis
Monday, March 31 at 12am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 78.55%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 8.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.22%), while for a Santos Laguna win it was 1-2 (2.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawSantos Laguna
78.55% (1.459 1.46)13.42% (-0.507 -0.51)8.02% (-0.956 -0.96)
Both teams to score 51.35% (-2.643 -2.64)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.12% (-0.988 -0.99)30.87% (0.986 0.99)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.76% (-1.183 -1.18)52.24% (1.179 1.18)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.75% (0.057000000000002 0.06)6.25% (-0.0599 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.43% (0.166 0.17)23.57% (-0.169 -0.17)
Santos Laguna Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.77% (-2.855 -2.86)45.23% (2.853 2.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.88% (-2.362 -2.36)81.12% (2.358 2.36)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 78.54%
    Santos Laguna 8.02%
    Draw 13.43%
TolucaDrawSantos Laguna
2-0 @ 10.86% (0.66 0.66)
3-0 @ 10.04% (0.639 0.64)
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.143 -0.14)
3-1 @ 7.97% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-0 @ 7.84% (0.448 0.45)
4-0 @ 6.96% (0.468 0.47)
4-1 @ 5.52% (-0.052 -0.05)
5-0 @ 3.86% (0.272 0.27)
3-2 @ 3.16% (-0.304 -0.3)
5-1 @ 3.06% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-2 @ 2.19% (-0.203 -0.2)
6-0 @ 1.78% (0.131 0.13)
6-1 @ 1.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-2 @ 1.22% (-0.108 -0.11)
Other @ 4.04%
Total : 78.54%
1-1 @ 6.22% (-0.125 -0.13)
2-2 @ 3.42% (-0.342 -0.34)
0-0 @ 2.83% (0.153 0.15)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 13.43%
1-2 @ 2.47% (-0.257 -0.26)
0-1 @ 2.24% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 0.9% (-0.173 -0.17)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 8.02%

Head to Head
Sep 23, 2024 2.05am
Gameweek 9
Santos Laguna
2-0
Toluca
Villalba (45'), Echeverria (60')
Nunez (35'), Santamaria (64'), Lopez (90+1'), Acevedo (90+1')

Garcia (36'), Ruiz (56')
Feb 22, 2024 1am
Gameweek 9
Toluca
1-0
Santos Laguna
Volpi (76' pen.)
Ruiz (32'), Baeza (38'), Pereira (61')

Aquino (74'), Amione (90+2')
Nov 6, 2023 12.05am
Gameweek 16
Santos Laguna
3-1
Toluca
Torres (35'), Medina (60'), Brunetta (63')
Brunetta (72'), Acevedo (78'), Campos (90')
Belmonte (90+3')
Pinuelas (34'), Volpi (64'), Araujo (80')
Feb 24, 2023 2.05am
Gameweek 7
Santos Laguna
0-5
Toluca
Garcia (17', 36'), Ruiz (58'), Fernandez (81')
Oct 17, 2022 1.06am
Santos Laguna
1-2
Toluca
Gorriaran (90+7')
Meneses (47'), Mosquera (50')