Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 76.77%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 8.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.26%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Santos Laguna win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monterrey would win this match.