Liga MX | Gameweek 17
Apr 20, 2025 at 2.05am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
2 - 2
Cruz Azul

Dominguez (30', 30'), Gallardo (43', 43')
Lopez (42'), Lopez (42'), Herrera (45+4'), Herrera (45+4')
FT(HT: 4-4)
Fernandez (2', 2'), Rotondi (45+3', 45+3')
Ditta (33'), Ditta (33'), Rotondi (37'), Rotondi (37'), Faravelli (63'), Faravelli (63')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Cruz Azul.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Atletico San Luis 0-1 Toluca
Thursday, April 17 at 3am in Liga MX

Cruz Azul

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Cruz Azul 2-1 Club Leon
Wednesday, April 16 at 4.05am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
TolucaDrawCruz Azul
49.17% (0.391 0.39)24.18% (0.09 0.09)26.65% (-0.479 -0.48)
Both teams to score 55.98% (-0.713 -0.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.04% (-0.751 -0.75)45.96% (0.752 0.75)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.73% (-0.715 -0.71)68.27% (0.715 0.72)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.24% (-0.134 -0.13)18.76% (0.134 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.84% (-0.227 -0.23)50.16% (0.228 0.23)
Cruz Azul Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.91% (-0.762 -0.76)31.09% (0.763 0.76)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.59% (-0.898 -0.9)67.41% (0.90000000000001 0.9)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 49.17%
    Cruz Azul 26.65%
    Draw 24.18%
TolucaDrawCruz Azul
1-0 @ 9.76% (0.267 0.27)
2-1 @ 9.54% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.17% (0.189 0.19)
3-1 @ 5.32% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.56% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.11% (-0.072 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.23% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.91% (0.028 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.3% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 49.17%
1-1 @ 11.4% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 5.83% (0.184 0.18)
2-2 @ 5.57% (-0.105 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.054 -0.05)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.18%
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.075 0.08)
1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.095 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.98% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.59% (-0.093 -0.09)
2-3 @ 2.17% (-0.087 -0.09)
0-3 @ 1.55% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 26.65%

Head to Head
Jul 21, 2024 4.05am
Gameweek 4
Cruz Azul
1-1
Toluca
Sepulveda (90')
Rodriguez (12'), Giakoumakis (55')
Araujo (38')
Gallardo (31'), Ruiz (42')
Apr 28, 2024 2am
Gameweek 17
Toluca
0-1
Cruz Azul
Ditta (18')
Rodriguez (71'), Candido (73')
Jul 9, 2023 12.50am
Gameweek 2
Cruz Azul
0-2
Toluca

Cambindo (52'), Rivero (53'), Jimenez (83'), Rotondi (90+3')
Jurado (39')
Volpi (37' pen.), Dominguez (90+2')
Lopez (29'), Huerta (29'), Dominguez (57'), Araujo (65')
> Preview
Feb 12, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 6
Toluca
3-1
Cruz Azul
Araujo (32', 54'), Saucedo (87')
Rotondi (28')
Aug 14, 2022 11pm
Gameweek 8
Cruz Azul
2-3
Toluca
Funes Mori (18'), Huescas (81')
Carneiro (69'), Baca (90+1'), Rivero (90+1'), Uriel (90+2')
Jurado (90+1')
Meneses (30'), Ruiz (43'), Sanvezzo (90+5' pen.)
Huerta (44'), Volpi (62')