Liga MX | Gameweek 15

Apr 13, 2025 at 2.05am UK

Estadio Jalisco

Atlas
2 - 3
Toluca

Aguirre (30', 30', 45+1', 45+1')
Rocha (23'), Rocha (23'), Doria (24'), Doria (24'), Luis Gonzalez Alcaraz (45+3'), Luis Gonzalez Alcaraz (45+3'), Nervo (55'), Nervo (55'), Aguirre (90+7'), Aguirre (90+7')

FT(HT: 4-4)

Paulinho (15', 15', 24', 24', 77', 77')
Mendez (29'), Mendez (29'), Angulo (39'), Angulo (39'), Paulinho (40'), Paulinho (40')

Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Atlas and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlas

All competitions

Last Game: Atlas 1-1 Juarez
Sunday, April 6 at 12am in Liga MX

Goals
for

Toluca

All competitions

Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Santos Laguna
Monday, April 7 at 1am in Liga MX

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for Atlas had a probability of 28.18% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Atlas win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Atlas	Draw	Toluca
28.18% ( 0.13)	24.04% ( 0.05)	47.78% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 57.72% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.77% (

-0.11)

44.23% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.39% (

-0.11)

66.61% (

0.11)

Atlas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.95% (

0.04)

29.05% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.04% (

0.05)

64.96% (

-0.05)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.35% (

-0.11)

18.65% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.04% (

-0.19)

49.96% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Atlas 28.19%

Toluca 47.78%

Draw 24.03%

Atlas	Draw	Toluca
2-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.42% Total : 28.19%	1-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.03%	1-2 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.64% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.29% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.22% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.38% Total : 47.78%