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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Morecambe |
| 49.7% ( | 24.55% ( | 25.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.98% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.78% ( | 48.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.63% ( | 70.38% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.57% ( | 19.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.73% ( | 51.27% ( |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( | 33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.41% ( | 69.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Morecambe |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% ( 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 2-0 @ 8.61% ( 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 3-0 @ 4.7% ( 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 4-0 @ 1.93% ( 4-2 @ 1.18% Other @ 3.01% Total : 49.7% | 1-1 @ 11.64% 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 2-2 @ 5.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.54% | 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 1-2 @ 6.46% ( 0-2 @ 3.94% ( 1-3 @ 2.39% ( 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 25.76% |