Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.32%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 27.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.